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Focus shifts to RBA and BOE decisions and NFP data |
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31st Jul 2020

Week ahead: Focus shifts to RBA and BOE decisions and NFP data

The overall US dollar weakness continued last week as investors reacted to the rising number of coronavirus cases in the US, the dovish Federal Reserve, and the disappointing GDP numbers from the US. In total, the greenback had the worst month since March 2016. Meanwhile, the South African rand ended the week lower against a number of currencies even after the country unveiled development projects worth billions of dollars.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will start its monetary policy meeting on Monday and deliver its decision on Tuesday. Like other central banks, inlcudng the ECB and the Fed, analysts believe that the RBA will leave interest rates unchanged. Also, because of the rising number of coronavirus cases in Australia, they also expect it to leave the yield curve control program intact. Still, analysts will be waiting to hear the bank’s future plans if the number of cases continue to rise.

On Tuesday, the bureau of statistics will release the June retail sales numbers and the total export and import numbers. On Wednesday, AIG and Markit will release the construction and services PMI numbers, respectively.
The Bank of England will start its meeting on Wednesday and deliver its rate decision on Thursday. This decision will come at a time when the British pound has been on a strong upward trend. In July alone, it rose by more than 3.8% against the US dollar. Analysts polled by Reuters expect the bank’s officials will leave interest rates unchanged at 0.25%. Also, since they increased their ceiling for the QE by £200 million in the last meeting, analysts don’t think that the bank will tamper with the purchases. Notably, analysts will be looking out for any hints of negative rates.
In the United States, the Bureau of Labour Statistics will release the July nonfarm payroll numbers on Friday. These numbers will be important because the number of people applying for jobless claims has been rising. Analysts polled by Reuters expect that the economy added more than 2.26 million jobs in July after adding more than 4.8 million in the previous month. They also see the unemployment rate dropping from 11.1% to 10.3%. In addition to the nonfarm payrolls, we will receive the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI numbers on Monday and Wednesday, respectively.
As the second-biggest economy in the world, data from China is usually very important. In July, data from the country showed that economic activity has started to bounce back. For example, the numbers showed that the economy expanded by 5.3% in the second quarter while the US contracted by 32%. This week, we will receive additional data from the country.

Today, we will receive the Caixin manufacturing PMI data. On Wednesday, it will release the services and composite PMI number. Finally, on Friday, the statistics office will release the July exports and imports numbers. Analysts expect exports to fall by 1.5% and imports to fall by 10%.
In addition to the events mentioned above, there will be other key numbers to watch this week. Today, we will receive the preliminary GDP data from Japan, inflation numbers from Switzerland, and global manufacturing PMI data. On Tuesday, Japanese and Turkish statistics offices will release the CPI numbers.

On Wednesday, the New Zealand statistics office will release the employment numbers while the Swedish office will release the GDP and industrial production data. On Thursday, other than the BOE decision, the calendar will be relatively muted. Finally, on Friday, we will also receive the Canadian jobs and PMI numbers.